Written by: Amanda Worsøe Andersen and Nina Roitmann
In this blog, the narrative presented in a video about future mobility created by Deloitte is discussed. The shortcomings of their vision regarding sustainable development are debated. Subsequently, an alternative vision for the future of personal transportation is proposed, where people living outside of the bigger cities are included in the considerations. This leads to a conclusion on obstacles that prevent the implementation of the new socio-technical system.
The future presented in the video is analysed by drawing on the multi-level perspective proposed by Geels (2002). Within the multi-level perspective, technological transitions can be perceived at three levels: Landscape, regime and niche. The "Landscape" is the external factor or context that can pressure the regime to change. "Regime" is the dominant socio-technical system. It is the status quo and the way things are done currently. “Niches” are small, building networks of innovation that offers something new to the socio-technical regime.
A world based on electric, autonomous cars
Deloitte proposes a possible future for mobility. This future consists of a Mobility as a Service (MaaS) system that provides interconnected transport possibilities. However, halfway through the video, they start to delve more into the future of cars. The car will slowly evolve into being fully electrical and fully autonomous through a slow, step-by-step integration of these characteristics into the current system. A system is proposed that should be easy and convenient for the user living in the city, deeming congestion and air pollution as something belonging to the past. Congestion is solved by proposing a device that can show shortcuts through the cities, allowing traffic to be more spread out.
Problems in the solutions that Deloitte proposes can be found. By spreading out the cars across the city there is a risk of reducing the traffic security of local routes in the cities, putting small children playing outside running at small local roads in danger. Furthermore, it creates insecurity for pedestrians and cyclists. To reduce congestion Deloitte does not consider the people that live in rural areas and drives by car to the big cities every day. As it is now, people living in rural areas can save a tremendous amount of time when using a personal fossil car compared to public transport. Furthermore, these are the people that could gain the most time if they could spend it on something else while commuting. It would therefore make sense to include them in a future MaaS-system. Big investments in charging- and repairing stations are required in the rural areas to allow electric and autonomous cars. These stations will not be as feasible economically as the ones in the cities, as there would not be as many customers to pay back the investment in these areas. This could result in the proposed transportation system not being accessible to people living outside the bigger cities, thereby not being an all-embracing solution for the future.
The entire future proposal of Deloitte does not match the need for sustainable development. It seems very unimaginative, as it still leaves us with the same sustainability issues. They do discuss how they can lessen air pollution within the cities, but they never instigate a shift in the transportation behaviour of the people. Hence, they rely on a technology-driven change of mobility, which accommodates the way that people travel as is. Seeing the proposal by Deloitte through the glasses of multi-level perspective as proposed by (Geels, 2002), the future relies on small incremental changes in the existing regime. Following this, we will only end up with more efficient cars, instead of rethinking entirely how we can fulfil the need for cars. The status quo will continue in a regime that will increasingly be put under pressure from climate change at the landscape level. Conversely, we propose to develop a new way of covering our transportation needs – thereby creating the way for a radically different and sustainable niche to become the dominant socio-technical regime.
Figure 1: Showing the difference in the proposed futures of us and Deloitte. Deloitte continues the current path, while we imagine going on a new, unknown path.
We will now present a vision of what the radical, sustainable future might be if we integrate the people living in rural areas into a future MaaS-system.
A world based on public transportation
Figure 2: What will be added and subtracted in our proposed future.
Imagine a world where high-speed trains drive from the big cities to peripherical municipalities and substitute cars, reduces congestion, noise and air pollution. A world where people use the public bike to get to the closest train station and the travel with the train goes faster and is more convenient than using a private car. The timetable for local trains and bus lines are adjusted to the new high-speed railways that makes it easy for people to arrive close to their destination by public transport instead of the car. People can live further away from the bigger cities, as they can quickly get to where they need. The stream of people moving from the outskirt municipalities to the big cities has stopped and there is no more pressure on the nature of the big cities to construct buildings for new arrivals. Young people can live inexpensively in apartments further outside the cities while studying at universities, as there are plenty of train departures both night and day. People can attend activities in the bigger cities while living in rural areas.
Imagine a world where cars are non-existent, and everybody will feel much safer commuting within the cities, allowing pedestrians, cyclists and elderly people to navigate the city without feeling afraid. Parents can let their children go to school alone, allowing more time for themselves to get to work. Roads are replaced by parks allowing recreational activities, as well as improving the experience of living in the cities. Businesses transport their goods on cargo bikes that they can bring with them on the trains. The craftsmen and other workers in need of transporting tools can do so on cargo bikes, allowing them to flexibly move around the city without having to worry about parking.
Rural areas are strengthened. More people in different parts of life are part of the community, allowing different hobby associations to flourish and bring some of the activities from the inner city out to the rural areas. With more people living in rural areas, the industry sees opportunities in locating their businesses and generate jobs in outskirt municipalities, resulting in less need for long commutes altogether. People in rural areas do not need to invest in a car, as they cannot use them since there are no roads. This results in savings overall, as they will only have to pay for public transport, compared to paying for both a whole car and gasoline.
Conclusion
Since Deloitte does not deliver solutions on how people living in rural areas can be part of the sustainable transition, we have chosen to focus on how to include this segment to make rural areas more attractive by introducing high-speed railways and bikes while limiting the need for cars. Our proposed future will free up space in the cities, making them safer for vulnerable segments of the population. Through this focus, we proposed a future socio-technical system where trains are the main means of transport, connected to a bicycle network, ensuring doorstep to doorstep transportation. Our proposed future would hopefully result in the population being spread out more evenly in Denmark, as it would not be a downside to live further away from the bigger cities. This could in return bring back life to rural areas, yet again making them more attractive for people and businesses to move to.
Generally, our proposed future will require a lot of money to be spent on changing infrastructures, and the first reactions to it might be very negative. Today the rural areas have a lower population and therefore the models of the traffic planners show that the demand for public transport is low, resulting in them not proposing increasing public transport in these areas (Banister, 2011). This affects local policies, resulting in less investment in public transportation to rural areas reinforcing the current socio-technical regime. Since so many people are driving in cars in rural areas there is a little belief among politicians that people would like to change behaviour and use the bike and the public transport instead. Our proposed future will require car commuters to change their practice and learn how to use a new infrastructural system and politicians to dare invest in rural areas.
The change of the current world is a necessity to combat climate challenges. Our proposed future is suggesting a world with clean air, cities filled with parks and green areas as well as rural cities becoming attractive, sustainable cities, reducing noise and crowdedness of the big cities - All factors contributing to a sustainable, enjoyable world for everyone.
References
Geels, F. W. (2002). Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: A multi-level perspective and a case-study. Research Policy, 31 (8–9), s. 1257–1274. doi:10.1016/S0048-7333(02)00062-8
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